Unpredictability was the order of the year in 2012 and I doubt 2013 will be too different. We saw 7 different drivers take a win in the first 7 races, including two brand-new winners in Rosberg and Maldonado. We saw old heroes return to the podium, with Raikkonen's fantastic comeback season, and Schumacher got the only podium of his Mercedes career. Midfield teams all had their share of glory, with Sauber, Force India and Williams all proving they can battle with the big boys, even if just for a little while. I can't promise I'll know exactly what will happen this year, and I will get most if not all of these wrong, but from being extremely anal and boring in the last 4 seasons, watching form and consistency, I think I have a good understanding of how the teams and drivers shape up.
There are a lot of things that I would love to see in the new season and some that I think are inevitable. So without further deliberation; for the record and "I-told-you-so" bragging rights, here they are.
More wins for Kimi
The Iceman returned last year with podiums and a win in the United Arab Emirates. Possibly my favourite driver, he reinforced his status as the coolest man in the sport by telling his engineer to "Leave [him] alone, I know what I'm doing" on the way to victory, and famously told David Coulthard that winning felt like "Not much". Some may call arrogance, but he always has been one to let his driving do the talking. Despite a tough pre-season test in Jerez, the Lotus E21 (which for my money is the most beautiful car of the lot) looks on form and I think/hope Kimi can provide more wins in the new season.
Hulkenberg on the podium
Pole position in Brazil 2010, dropped for 2011, steady points in 2012. Nico has gradually worked his way into a very decent seat, securing a drive with the ever-improving Sauber for this year. Some would argue that it's a step, not backwards, nor forwards, but sideways in terms of performance from midfield battlers Force India. But the Swiss outfit do look to be pulling away from the orange cars, and Nico may have jumped ship at just the right time. He proved he can race with the very best at the last race of 2012 in Brazil, leading for several laps. He pitted and ultimately buggered up Lewis Hamilton's race by careening into the Brit's front left wheel and forcing him out, so ironing out any signs of inexperience may be his biggest challenge this season.
Especially now, considering his new-found team leader status. With two full seasons for Williams and Force India under his overalls, he's been under the shadow of the Elder Statesman Rubens Barrichello, and nippy Scot Paul di Resta. Despite his responosibility of nurturing Esteban Gutierrez as a consistent team mate, I feel that 'the Hulk' could really punch (Hulk Smash!) above his weight, even taking the bottom step of the podium if he plays his cards right. Definitely one for the future.
Grosjean calming down
The only driver to have had a race ban in ages; Grosjean endangered lives and his career with a huge crash in Belgium. His incredible qualifying speed was confirmed, and he was able to convert that speed to podiums in Bahrain, Canada, and Hungary. He scored points in 7 other races too, but his love of carbon fibre shards seemed a little excessive, crashing into people on the first lap no fewer than 7 times. He and Maldonado seemed to be the failsafe if anyone were to crash out of a race, but perhaps we are a little too quick to judge. Grosjean is quick, but careless. He is not, however, dangerous, and that has helped him maintain his seat for 2013. You can bet that he's skating on thin ice with Eric Boullier and co. and any more slip ups could cost him his place in the team to Bruno Senna or Jerone d'Ambrosio, much like it did in Italy last year.
Button at his best
Jenson doesn't think that having a smooth driving style will pay much of a dividend in 2013 but I disagree. I think being the undisputed team leader (He and Hamilton shared a 'driver equality' mantra since 2010) will be a positive thing, and with the hot shot Mexican Perez nudging for his first race victory, Jenson's best driving will come out. Looking back through the years, it's difficult to find ANY instances of Jenson crashing from an unforced error, or tangling with other drivers (unless you count hitting Karthikeyan in Malaysia '12 because he thought he was lapping him, and not seeing Hamilton in Canada '11) and as anyone will tell you - consistency is the key.
First point(s) for Caterham
For the past 2 seasons we've been saying "One of the new teams HAS to score this year" but the 'has' could not be more crucial in this sense. Other minnows like Force India (now much bigger) and Super Aguri were able to score points in their second seasons. Sure, they may have followed on from formerly-successful teams (Jordan, Arrows) but the shake up in team logistics was well adapted to by both, and for either Caterham or Marussia to take four years to score is quite ridiculous. However, I think this will be the year.
Predicting the future
It's going to be so unbelievably close this year; everyone seems strong. These are what I think the standings. I'll only do a few drivers, because that's much harder to predict than the Constructors.
Drivers' World Championship
Button - JB's smoothness could see him return to the very top again.
Webber - Christian Horner insists that he's not on his way out, and Mark has been a title challenger before.
Vettel - Vettel has broken pretty much every record, his only goal now - aim for Schumacher's 7 titles.
Raikkonen - Kimi and Lotus look strong again this year, can Lotus take the fight to the bigguns?
Hamilton - Pushing Mercedes forward, Hamilton could do a sterling job this year, but not the title
Constructors' World Championship
Red Bull - Several wins for both drivers
McLaren - Button winning regularly, Perez supporting
Lotus - Raikkonen scoring most weeks, help from Grosjean
Ferrari - Steady points for both drivers
Sauber - Low-end points finishes bolstered by podiums
Mercedes - Podiums here and there
Force India - average, midfield running
Williams - Two pay drivers in the right place at the right time
Caterham - the odd point here and there, closing the gap to the midfield
Toro Rosso - Falling backwards
Marussia - Still developing; may score first point(s)
There you have it. I can't promise you that any of this right; in fact it's more likely to be all completely incorrect. All I can promise you is intensely close racing and unpredictability.
See you all in Melbourne!
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